Climate change


  Report on The State Department Climate Action: Introduction and Overview


                          International Activities


    No single country can resolve the problem  of  global  climate  change.
Recognizing this, the  United  States  is  engaged  in  many  activities  to
facilitate  closer  international  cooperation.  To  this  end,   the   U.S.
government  has  actively  participated  in   international   research   and
assessment efforts (e.g., through the  IPCC),  in  efforts  to  develop  and
implement a global climate change strategy (through the FCCC  Conference  of
the Parties and  its  varied  subsidiary  bodies  and  through  the  Climate
Technology Initiative), and by providing financial and technical  assistance
to  developing  countries  to  facilitate  development  of  mitigation   and
sequestration strategies (e.g.,  through  the  Global  Environment  Facility
(GEF)).  Bilateral  and  multilateral  opportunities  are  currently   being
implemented,  with  some  designed  to  capitalize  on   the   technological
capabilities of the private sector, and others to work on  a  government-to-
government basis.
    In the existing Convention framework, the United  States  has  seconded
technical experts to the FCCC secretariat to help implement  methodological,
technical,  and  technological  activities.  U.S.  experts  review  national
communications of other Parties and are helping to advance  the  development
of methodologies for inventorying national emissions.
    The United States has been active in promoting  next  steps  under  the
Convention. It has encouraged all countries to take appropriate analyses  of
their  own  circumstances  before  taking  action--and  then  act  on  these
analyses. It has suggested--and, where possible, has  demonstrated--flexible
and robust institutional systems through which actions can  be  taken,  such
as programs  to  implement  emission-reduction  activities  jointly  between
Parties, and emission-trading programs. The United States  has  also  sought
to use its best diplomatic  efforts  to  prod  those  in  the  international
community reluctant to act, seeking to provide assurances that the issue  is
critical and warrants global attention. Through these efforts,  the  ongoing
negotiations are  expected  to  successfully  conclude  in  late  1997.  The
successful implementation of the Convention and a new legal instrument  will
ensure that the potential hazards of climate change will never be  realized.

    As a major  donor  to  the  GEF,  the  United  States  has  contributed
approximately  $190  million  to  help   developing   countries   meet   the
incremental costs of protecting the global environment. Although the  United
States is behind in the voluntary payment schedule agreed  upon  during  the
GEF replenishment adopted in 1994, plans have been made  to  pay  off  these
arrears.
    The principles of the U.S. development assistance strategy lie  at  the
heart of U.S. bilateral mitigation projects. These  principles  include  the
concepts of conservation and cultural respect, as  well  as  empowerment  of
local citizenry. The  U.S.  government  works  primarily  through  the  U.S.
Agency for International Development (USAID). In fact, mitigation of  global
climate change is one of USAID's two global environmental priorities.  Other
agencies working in the climate change field,  including  the  Environmental
Protection Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,  and
the Departments of Agriculture and Energy, are also active  internationally.
Projects fit  into  various  general  categories,  such  as  increasing  the
efficiency  of  power   operation   and   use,   adopting   renewable-energy
technologies, reducing air pollution, improving agricultural  and  livestock
practices, and decreasing deforestation and improving land use.
Perhaps none of the U.S. programs is as  well  known  as  the  U.S.  Country
Studies Program. The program is currently  assisting  fifty-five  developing
countries and countries with economies in  transition  to  market  economies
with climate change  studies  intended  to  build  human  and  institutional
capacity to address climate change. Through its Support for National  Action
Plans, the program is supporting the preparation of national climate  action
plans for eighteen developing countries, which will lay the  foundation  for
their national communication, as required by the  FCCC.  More  than  twenty-
five  additional  countries  have  requested  similar  assistance  from  the
Country Studies Program.
The United States is also committed to facilitating the commercial  transfer
of  energy-efficient  and  renewable-energy  technologies  that   can   help
developing countries achieve sustainable development. Under the auspices  of
the Climate Technology Initiative, the U.S. has taken a lead role in a  task
force on Energy Technology Networking and Capacity Building, the efforts  of
which focus on  increasing  the  availability  of  reliable  climate  change
technologies, developing options for improving access to data in  developing
countries, and supporting experts in the field around the world. The  United
States is also engaged in various other projects intended to help  countries
with mitigation and adaptation issues. The International Activities  chapter
focuses on the most important of these U.S. efforts.


                          Introduction and Overview


    Since the historic gathering of representatives from 172  countries  at
the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in June  1992,  issues  of  environmental
protection have remained high  on  national  and  international  priorities.
Climate change is one of the most visible of these issues--and one in  which
some of the most significant progress has been made since the 1992  session.
Perhaps the crowning achievement in Rio  was  the  adoption  of  the  United
Nations Framework Convention  on  Climate  Change  (FCCC).  This  Convention
represented a shared commitment by nations around the world  to  reduce  the
potential risks of  a  major  global  environmental  problem.  Its  ultimate
objective is to:
    Achieve    stabilization  of  greenhouse  gas  concentrations  in  the
atmosphere at a level  that  would  prevent  dangerous  anthropogenic  human
interference with the climate  system.  Such  a  level  should  be  achieved
within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems  to  adapt  naturally  to
climate change, to ensure that food production is  not  threatened,  and  to
enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
    However, since the 1992 Earth Summit, the global  community  has  found
that actions to mitigate climate change will  need  to  be  more  aggressive
than anticipated. At the same time, the  rationale  for  action  has  proven
more compelling. Few "Annex I" countries (the Climate Convention's term  for
developed countries, including Organization  for  Economic  Cooperation  and
Development  (OECD)  member  countries  and  countries  with  economies   in
transition to market economies) have demonstrated an  ability  to  meet  the
laudable, albeit nonbinding, goal of the  Convention--"to  return  emissions
of greenhouse gases to their 1990 levels by the end of  the  decade."  While
voluntary  programs  have  demonstrated  that  substantial  reductions   are
achievable at economic savings or low costs, the success of  these  programs
has been overshadowed  by  lower-than-expected  energy  prices  as  well  as
higher-than-expected economic growth and  electricity  demand,  among  other
factors.
    Recognizing that even the  most  draconian  measures  would  likely  be
insufficient to reverse the growth  in  greenhouse  gases  and  return  U.S.
emissions to their 1990 levels by  the  year  2000,  new  U.S.  efforts  are
focusing most intensively on the post-2000  period.  Thus,  while  some  new
voluntary actions have already been  proposed  (and  are  included  in  this
report), an effort to develop a  comprehensive  program  to  address  rising
U.S. greenhouse gas emissions is being  developed  in  the  context  of  the
ongoing  treaty  negotiations  and  will  be  reported  in  the  next   U.S.
communication.
    In spite of difficulties in meeting a domestic goal to return emissions
to their 1990 levels, the U.S. commitment to addressing the  climate  change
problem remains a high priority.  President  Clinton,  in  remarks  made  in
November 1996, both underlined U.S. concerns and  exhorted  the  nations  of
the world to act:
       We must work to reduce  harmful  greenhouse  gas  emissions.  These
   gases released by cars and power plants and burning  forests  affect  our
   health and our climate. They are literally warming our  planet.  If  they
   continue unabated, the consequences will be nothing short of  devastating
   . We must stand  together  against  the  threat  of  global  warming.  A
   greenhouse may be a good place to raise plants; it is no place to nurture
   our children. And we can avoid dangerous global warming if we begin today
   and if we begin together.
    Difficulties in meeting the "aim" of the  Climate  Convention  prompted
the  international  community,  gathered  at  the  first  meeting   of   the
Conference of the Parties to the FCCC (held in  Berlin,  Germany,  in  March
1995), to agree on a new approach to addressing the climate change  problem.
At their first session,  the  Parties  decided  to  negotiate  a  new  legal
instrument containing appropriate next steps under the  Convention.  At  the
Second Conference of the Parties (COP-2), the United  States  expressed  its
view that the new agreement should include three main elements:
a realistic and achievable binding target (instead of  the  hortatory  goals
and nonbinding aims of the existing Convention),
flexibility in implementation, and
the participation of developing countries.
    Each of these elements was included in a Ministerial Declaration agreed
to at  COP-2,  and  the  United  States  expects  that  a  legal  instrument
containing these elements will  be  one  of  the  outcomes  from  the  Third
Conference of the Parties, to be held in Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997.
    As international negotiations continue on a new legal  commitment,  the
United States is assessing options for a domestic program.  The  results  of
this analytical effort  are  being  used  to  inform  the  U.S.  negotiating
positions, and will subsequently be used to  develop  compliance  strategies
to meet any commitments established under the new regime.
    While the Parties involved in the  negotiations  are  determining  next
steps for collective action, all countries are still actively  pursuing  the
programs adopted earlier in the decade to control emissions.  This  document
describes the current U.S. program. It represents  the  second  formal  U.S.
communication under the FCCC, as required under  Articles  4.2  and  12.  As
with the Climate Action Report published by the United States  in  1994,  it
is a "freeze frame"--a look at the  current  moment  in  time  in  the  U.S.
program. This report does not predict additional future activities.  Nor  is
it intended to be  a  substitute  for  existing  or  future  decision-making
processes--whether  administrative   or   legislative--or   for   additional
measures developed by or with the private sector.
    This document has been developed using  the  methodologies  and  format
agreed to at the first meeting of the  Conference  of  the  Parties  to  the
FCCC, and modified by the second meeting of the Conference  of  the  Parties
and by sessions of  the  Convention's  Subsidiary  Body  on  Scientific  and
Technological Advice and the Subsidiary Body on Implementation.  The  United
States assumes that this communication, like those of  other  countries--and
like the  preceding  U.S.  communication--will  be  subject  to  a  thorough
review, and discussed in the evaluation  process  for  the  Parties  of  the
Convention. Even though the measures listed in this report are not  expected
to reduce U.S. emissions below 1990 levels by  the  year  2000,  the  United
States believes that many of the climate change  actions  being  implemented
have been successful at reducing emissions, send  valuable  signals  to  the
private sector, and may be appropriate models for other countries. The  U.S.
experience should also ensure that future  efforts  are  more  effective  in
reversing the rising trend of emissions  and  returning  U.S.  emissions  to
more environmentally sustainable levels.



                                 The Science


    The 1992 Convention effort was largely predicated on the scientific and
technical information produced by the  Intergovernmental  Panel  on  Climate
Change (IPCC) in its 1990  report.  The  IPCC  consists  of  more  than  two
thousand of the world's best scientists  with  expertise  in  the  physical,
social, and economic sciences relevant to  the  climate  issue.  The  United
States stands firmly behind the IPCC's conclusions.  As  the  actions  being
taken by the United States ultimately depend on the  nation's  understanding
of the science, it is important to at least briefly review this  information
here.
    The Earth absorbs energy from the sun in the form of  solar  radiation.
About one-third  is  reflected,  and  the  rest  is  absorbed  by  different
components of the climate system, including the atmosphere, the oceans,  the
land surface, and the biota. The incoming energy is balanced over  the  long
term by outgoing radiation from the Earth-atmosphere system,  with  outgoing
radiation taking the form  of  long-wave,  invisible  infrared  energy.  The
magnitude of this outgoing radiation is affected in part by the  temperature
of the Earth-atmosphere system.
    Several human and natural activities can change the balance between the
energy absorbed by the Earth and that  emitted  in  the  form  of  long-wave
infrared radiation. On the natural side,  these  include  changes  in  solar
radiation (the sun's  energy  varies  by  small  amounts--approximately  0.1
percent over an eleven-year cycle--and variations over longer  periods  also
occur). They also include  volcanic  eruptions,  injecting  huge  clouds  of
sulfur-containing  gases,  which  tend  to  cool  the  Earth's  surface  and
atmosphere over a few years. On the human-induced side, the balance  can  be
changed by emissions from land-use changes  and  industrial  practices  that
add  or  remove  "heat-trapping"  or  "greenhouse"  gases,   thus   changing
atmospheric absorption of radiation.
    Greenhouse gases of policy significance include carbon  dioxide  (CO2);
methane (CH4); nitrous  oxide  (N2O);  the  chlorofluorocarbons  (CFCs)  and
their  substitutes,  including  hydrofluorocarbons  (HFCs);  the  long-lived
fully fluorinated hydrocarbons, such as perfluorocarbons (PFCs);  and  ozone
(O3). Although most of these gases occur naturally (the exceptions  are  the
CFCs, their substitutes, and the long-lived  PFCs),  the  concentrations  of
all of these gases are changing as a result of human activities.
    For example, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has  risen
about 30 percent since the 1700s--an  increase  responsible  for  more  than
half of the enhancement of the trapping of the  infrared  radiation  due  to
human  activities.  In  addition  to  their  steady  rise,  many  of   these
greenhouse gases have long atmospheric residence times (several  decades  to
centuries), which means that atmospheric levels of these gases  will  return
to preindustrial levels only if emissions  are  sharply  reduced,  and  even
then only after a long  time.  Internationally  accepted  science  indicates
that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases  will  raise  atmospheric
and oceanic temperatures and could alter associated weather and  circulation
patterns.
    In a report synthesizing its second  assessment  and  focusing  on  the
relevance of its scientific  analyses  to  the  ultimate  objective  of  the
Convention, the IPCC concluded:
Human activities--including the burning  of  fossil  fuels,  land  use,  and
agriculture--are changing the atmospheric composition. Taken together,  they
are projected to lead to changes in global and regional climate and climate-
related parameters, such as temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture.
Some  human  communities--particularly  those   with   limited   access   to
mitigating technologies--are becoming more  vulnerable  to  natural  hazards
and can be expected to suffer significantly from  the  impacts  of  climate-
related changes, such as  high-temperature  events,  floods,  and  droughts,
potentially resulting in fires,  pest  outbreaks,  ecosystem  loss,  and  an
overall reduction in the level of primary productivity.
          The IPCC  also  concluded  that,  given  the  current  trends  in
      emissions, global concentrations of greenhouse  gases  are  likely  to
      grow significantly through  the  next  century  and  beyond,  and  the
      adverse impacts from these changes will become greater. The  remainder
      of this report seeks to elucidate the programs, policies, and measures
      being taken in the United States to begin moving away from this  trend
      of increasing emissions, and to help move  the  world  away  from  the
      trend of globally increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases.

|Principal Conclusions of the IPCC's Second Assessment Report         |
|While the basic facts about the science of climate have been         |
|understood and broadly accepted for years, new information is        |
|steadily emerging--and influencing the policy process. In 1995, the  |
|IPCC released its Second Assessment Report, which not only validated |
|most of the IPCC's earlier findings, but because of the considerable |
|new work that had been undertaken during the five years since its    |
|previous full-scale assessment, broke new ground. The report is      |
|divided into three sections: physical sciences related to climate    |
|impacts; adaptation and mitigation responses; and cross-cutting      |
|issues, including economics and social sciences.                     |
|The Climate Science                                                  |
|Human activities are changing the atmospheric concentrations and     |
|distributions of greenhouse gases and aerosols.                      |
|Global average temperatures have increased about 0.3-0.6C (about    |
|0.5-1.0F) over the last century.                                    |
|The ability of climate models to simulate observed trends has        |
|improved--although there is still considerable regional uncertainty  |
|with regard to changes.                                              |
|The balance of evidence suggests there is a discernible human        |
|influence on global climate.                                         |
|Aerosol sulfates (a component of acid rain) offset some of the       |
|warming by greenhouse gases.                                         |
|The IPCC mid-range scenario projects an increase of 2.0C (3.7F) by |
|2100 (with a range of 1.0-3.5C (about 1.8-6.3F).                   |
|The average global warming projected in the IPCC mid-range scenario  |
|is greater than any seen in the last ten thousand years.             |
|Sea level is projected to rise (due to thermal expansion of the      |
|oceans, and melting of glaciers and ice sheets) by about 50          |
|centimeters (20 inches) by 2100, with a range of 15-95 centimeters   |
|(about 6-38 inches).                                                 |
|Even after a stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations,         |
|temperatures would continue to increase for several decades, and sea |
|level would continue to rise for centuries.                          |
|Vulnerability, Likely Impacts, and Possible Responses                |
|Climate change is likely to have wide-ranging and mostly adverse     |
|effects on human health. Direct and indirect effects can be expected |
|to lead to increased mortality.                                      |
|Coastal infrastructure is likely to be extremely vulnerable. A       |
|50-centimeter (20-inch) rise in sea level would place approximately  |
|120 million people at risk.                                          |
|Natural and managed ecosystems are also at risk: forests,            |
|agricultural areas, and aquatic and marine life are all susceptible. |
|                                                                     |
|However, adaptation and mitigation options are numerous. Significant |
|reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions are technically possible  |
|and can be economically feasible, using an extensive array of        |
|technologies and policy measures that accelerate technology          |
|development, diffusion, and transfer.                                |
|Socioeconomic Issues                                                 |
|Early mitigation may increase flexibility in moving toward a         |
|stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.     |
|Economic risks of rapid abatement must be balanced against risks of  |
|delay.                                                               |
|Significant "no regrets" opportunities are available in most         |
|countries. Next steps must recognize equity considerations.          |
|Costs of stabilization of emissions at 1990 levels in OECD countries |
|could range considerably (from a gain of $60 billion to a loss of    |
|about $240 billion) over the next several decades.                   |


                           National Circumstances


    In responding to the threat of global climate change, U.S. policymakers
must consider the  special  circumstances  created  by  a  unique  blend  of
challenges and opportunities. The National  Circumstances  chapter  of  this
report attempts to explain the particular situation in the  United  States--
including  its  climate,  natural  resources,  population  trends,  economy,
energy mix, and political system--as a backdrop for understanding  the  U.S.
perspective on global climate change.
    The United States is unusual in that it encompasses a wide  variety  of
climate conditions within its borders,  from  subtropical  to  tundra.  This
diversity complicates the discussion of impacts  of  global  climate  change
within the United States because  those  impacts  would  vary  widely.  This
diversity also adds to U.S. emission levels, as heating and cooling  demands
drive up emissions. Recent record levels of precipitation--both in  snowfall
and rain--consistent with what could be expected under  a  changed  climate,
have raised the awareness of climate  impacts  at  the  local  and  regional
levels, and may make it somewhat easier to predict the effects of  increased
precipitation.
    The United States also is uncommonly rich in land  resources,  both  in
extent and diversity. U.S. land area totals about 931 million hectares  (2.3
billion  acres),  including  grassland  pasture  and  range,   forest,   and
cropland. Forested land has been increasing, while grasslands and  croplands
are slowly declining and being converted  to  other  uses.  The  decline  in
wetlands has slowed significantly as a result of the "no  net  loss"  policy
being implemented.
    With just over 265 million people, the United States is the third  most
populous country in the world, although  population  density  varies  widely
throughout the country, and  is  generally  very  low.  Although  population
increase is moderate from a global perspective, it is high relative  to  the
average  for  all  industrialized  countries.  Moreover,   the   number   of
households is growing rapidly. These and other factors drive U.S.  emissions
to higher per capita rates than those in most other  countries  with  higher
population densities, smaller land areas, or more concentrated  distribution
of resources to population centers.
    The U.S. market economy is based on property rights and a  reliance  on
the efficiency of the  market  as  a  means  of  allocating  resources.  The
government plays a key role in  addressing  market  failures  and  promoting
social  welfare,  including  through  the  imposition  of   regulations   on
pollutants and the protection of property rights, but  is  cautious  in  its
interventions.  Thus,  the  infrastructure  exists  to  limit  emissions  of
greenhouse gases--although the strong political and economic  preference  is
to undertake such controls through  flexible  and  cost-effective  programs,
including voluntary programs and market instruments, where appropriate.
    U.S. economic growth averaged 3 percent annually from 1960 to 1993, and
employment nearly tripled as the  overall  labor  force  participation  rate
rose to 66  percent.  The  service  sector--which  includes  communications,
utilities, finance, insurance, and real estate--has grown rapidly,  and  now
accounts for more than 36 percent of the economy.  The  increasing  role  of
trade in the U.S.  economy  heightens  concerns  about  the  competitiveness
effects of climate policies.
    During the 1980s, the U.S. budget deficit  grew  rapidly,  as  did  the
ratio of debt to gross domestic product, and a political  consensus  emerged
on the goal of a balanced budget. The result is  a  tighter  federal  budget
with many competing priorities.
    The United States is the world's largest energy producer and  consumer.
Abundant resources of all fossil fuels have contributed to  low  prices  and
specialization   in   relatively   energy-intensive    activities.    Energy
consumption has nearly doubled since 1960, and would have  grown  far  more,
because of growth in the economy, population, and transportation needs,  had
it not been for impressive reductions in U.S. energy  intensity.  Industrial
energy intensity has declined most markedly, due to  structural  shifts  and
efficiency  improvements.  In  the  residential  and   commercial   sectors,
efficiency improvements largely offset the growth in the number and size  of
both residential and commercial buildings. Likewise, in  the  transportation
sector, efficiency moderated the rise in total fuel  consumption  from  1973
to 1995 to only 26 percent, despite dramatic increases in  both  the  number
of vehicles and the distances they are  driven.  Fossil  fuel  prices  below
levels assumed in  the  1993  Climate  Change  Action  Plan,  however,  have
contributed to the unexpectedly large growth in U.S. emissions.
    While unique national  circumstances  point  to  the  reasons  for  the
current levels (and increases) in U.S.  emissions,  they  also  suggest  the
potential for emission reductions. Successful government and  private-sector
programs are  beginning  to  exploit  some  of  the  inefficiencies  in  the
manufacturing sector. The development of new, climate-friendly  technologies
is a rapidly growing industry,  with  significant  long-term  potential  for
domestic and international emission reductions.

                          Greenhouse Gas Inventory

    Inventorying the national emissions  of  greenhouse  gases  is  a  task
shared by several departments within the executive  branch  of  the  federal
government, including the Environmental Protection  Agency,  the  Department
of Energy and the Department of Agriculture. The  Greenhouse  Gas  Inventory
chapter summarizes the most  current  information  on  U.S.  greenhouse  gas
emission trends--and represents the 1997 submission from the  United  States
in fulfillment of its annual inventory reporting obligation.  The  estimates
presented in this chapter were compiled using methods consistent with  those
recommended by the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas  Inventories;
therefore, the U.S.  emissions  inventory  should  be  comparable  to  those
submitted by others under the FCCC.
    Table 1-1 summarizes the recent trends in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions
from 1990 to 1995. The three most important anthropogenic  greenhouse  gases
are  carbon  dioxide  (CO2),  methane  (CH4),  and  nitrous   oxide   (N2O).
Hydrofluorocarbons  (HFCs)  are  also  inventoried.  Consistent   with   the
requirements in the Climate Convention only to address  emissions  of  gases
not controlled by the Montreal  Protocol  on  Substances  That  Deplete  the
Ozone Layer, chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions  are  not  inventoried,  nor
are mitigation measures for these compounds described.

|Table 1-1            |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|Recent Trends in U.S.|     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|Greenhouse Gas       |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|Emissions: 1990-1995 |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|(MMTs of Carbon      |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|Equivalent)          |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|Gases and Sources    |Emiss|     |     |     |     |      |     |
|                     |ions-|     |     |     |     |      |     |
|                     |-Dire|     |     |     |     |      |     |
|                     |ct   |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|                     |and  |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|                     |Indir|     |     |     |     |      |     |
|                     |ect  |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|                     |Effec|     |     |     |     |      |     |
|                     |ts   |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|                     |1990 |1991 |1992 |1993 |1994 |1995  |     |
|Carbon Dioxide (CO2) |1,228|1,213|1,235|1,268|1,291|1,305 |     |
|Fossil Fuel          |1,336|1,320|1,340|1,370|1,391|1,403 |     |
|Combustion           |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|Industrial Processes |17   |16   |17   |18   |19   |19    |     |
|and Other            |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|Total                |1,353|1,336|1,357|1,388|1,410|1,422 |     |
|Forests (sink)*      |(125)|(123)|(122)|(120)|(119)|(117) |     |
|Methane (CH4)        |170  |172  |173  |171  |176  |177   |     |
|Landfills            |56   |58   |58   |60   |62   |64    |     |
|Agriculture          |50   |51   |52   |52   |54   |55    |     |
|Coal Mining          |24   |23   |22   |20   |21   |20    |     |
|Oil and Natural Gas  |33   |33   |34   |33   |33   |33    |     |
|Systems              |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|Other                |6    |7    |7    |6    |6    |6     |     |
|Nitrous Oxide (N2O)  |36   |37   |37   |38   |39   |40    |     |
|Agriculture          |17   |17   |17   |18   |18   |18    |     |
|Fossil Fuel          |11   |11   |12   |12   |12   |12    |     |
|Consumption          |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|Industrial Processes |8    |8    |8    |8    |9    |9     |     |
|HFCs                 |12   |12   |13   |14   |17   |21    |     |
|PFCs                 |5    |5    |5    |5    |7    |8     |     |
|SF6                  |7    |7    |8    |8    |8    |8     |     |
|U.S. Emissions       |1,583|1,570|1,592|1,624|1,657|1,676 |     |
|Net U.S. Emissions   |1,458|1,447|1,470|1,504|1,538|1,559 |     |
|Note: The totals     |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|presented in the     |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|summary tables in    |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|this chapter may not |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|equal the sum of the |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|individual source    |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|categories due to    |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|rounding.            |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|* These estimates for|     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|the conterminous     |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|United States for    |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|1990-91 and 1993-95  |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|are interpolated from|     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|forest inventories in|     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|1987 and 1992 and    |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|from projections     |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|through 2040. The    |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|calculation method   |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|reflects long-term   |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|averages, rather than|     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|specific events in   |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |
|any given year.      |     |     |     |     |     |      |     |

    Overall, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions have increased annually by  just
over one percent. The trend of U.S. emissions--which decreased from 1990  to
1991, and then increased again in  1992--is  a  consequence  of  changes  in
total energy consumption resulting from the U.S. economic  slowdown  in  the
beginning of this decade and its subsequent recovery.
    Carbon dioxide accounts for the largest share of U.S. greenhouse gases--
approximately 85  percent--although  the  carbon  sinks  in  forested  lands
offset CO2 emissions by about 8  percent.  During  1990-95,  greenhouse  gas
emissions continued to rise  in  the  United  States,  with  CO2  increasing
approximately 6 percent, methane approximately  4  percent,  N2O  nearly  10
percent, and HFCs approximately 7 percent. Fossil fuel  combustion  accounts
for 99 percent of total U.S.  CO2  emissions.  (Chapter  3  of  this  report
explains the use of MMTCE in converting emissions  of  greenhouse  gases  to
carbon equivalents.)
    Although methane emissions are  lower  than  CO2  emissions,  methane's
footprint is large: in a 100-year time span it is considered to  be  twenty-
one times more effective than CO2 at trapping heat in the atmosphere and  is
responsible for about 10 percent of the warming caused  by  U.S.  emissions.
In addition, in the last two centuries alone, methane concentrations in  the
atmosphere  have  more  than  doubled.  Emissions  of  methane  are  largely
generated by landfills, agriculture, oil and natural gas systems,  and  coal
mining, with landfills comprising the single largest source of the  gas.  In
1995, methane emissions  from  U.S.  landfills  were  63.5  MMTCE,  equaling
approximately 36  percent  of  total  U.S.  methane  emissions.  Agriculture
supplied about 30 percent of U.S. methane emissions in that same year.
    Nitrous oxide is also emitted  in  much  smaller  amounts  than  carbon
dioxide in the United  States  and  is  responsible  for  approximately  2.4
percent of the U.S. share of the greenhouse effect. However,  like  methane,
it is a more  powerful  heat  trap--310  times  more  powerful  than  carbon
dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere over a 100-year period. The  main
anthropogenic activities producing nitrous  oxide  are  agriculture,  fossil
fuel combustion, and the production of  adipic  and  nitric  acids.  Figures
from 1995 show the agricultural sector emitting  46  percent  of  the  total
(18.4 MMTCE), with fossil fuel combustion generating 31 percent.
    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are among the compounds introduced to replace
ozone-depleting substances, which are being phased out as a  result  of  the
Vienna Convention and its Montreal Protocol on Substances That  Deplete  the
Ozone Layer, and the Clean Air Act Amendments of  1990.  Because  HFCs  have
significant potential to alter  the  Earth's  radiative  balance,  they  are
included in this inventory.  Many  of  the  compounds  of  this  nature  are
extremely stable and remain in the atmosphere for extended periods of  time,
which results in a significant  atmospheric  accumulation  over  time.  U.S.
emissions of these gases have risen nearly 60 percent as they are phased  in
as substitutes for gases that are  no  longer  allowed  under  the  Montreal
Protocol--a rate of growth that is not anticipated to  continue.  Currently,
HFCs account for less than 2 percent of U.S. radiative forcing.

                          Mitigating Climate Change
    In October 1993, in response to the threat of  global  climate  change,
President Clinton and Vice  President  Gore  announced  the  Climate  Change
Action Plan (CCAP). The Plan  was  designed  to  reduce  U.S.  emissions  of
greenhouse gases, while guiding  the  U.S.  economy  toward  environmentally
sound economic growth  into  the  next  century.  This  report  updates  the
programs in the CCAP (including an appendix providing one-page  descriptions
of each program), describes  several  additional  initiatives  developed  to
further reduce emission growth rates, and estimates future  emissions  based
on the current set of practices and programs.
    CCAP programs represent an effort to stimulate actions  that  are  both
profitable for individual private-sector participants as well as  beneficial
to the environment. Currently, more  than  forty  programs  are  in  effect,
combining efforts of the government at the federal, state, and local  levels
with those of the private sector. The CCAP has five  goals:  preserving  the
environment, enhancing sustainable growth environmentally and  economically,
building partnerships, involving the public, and  encouraging  international
emission reductions.
    Carbon dioxide emissions constitute the bulk  of  U.S.  greenhouse  gas
emissions. CCAP recognizes that investing in energy efficiency is  the  most
cost-effective way to reduce these  emissions.  The  largest  proportion  of
CCAP programs contains measures that reduce carbon dioxide  emissions  while
simultaneously enhancing domestic productivity  and  competitiveness.  Other
programs seek to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by investing in  renewable-
energy and other low-carbon, energy-supply  technologies,  which  will  also
provide longer-term benefits, such as increased efficiency and related cost-
savings and pollution prevention. A smaller number of programs are  targeted
at methane, nitrous oxide, and other greenhouse gases (Table 1-2).
    A review and update of the CCAP was  initiated  in  1995,  involving  a
federal government interagency review  process  and  a  public  hearing  and
comment period. Revisions to  the  CCAP  (and  to  the  calculation  of  the
effects of its measures)  were  initiated  in  light  of  comments  received
during this process and are reflected in  this  document.  In  addition,  as
called for under FCCC reporting guidelines, the projections of  the  effects
of measures taken are extended to the  year  2020,  with  the  understanding
that uncertainties become greater in more distant years.
    One of the principal products of the review was an  assessment  of  the
effectiveness of the CCAP programs, which were rated  to  be  successful  at
reducing  emissions.  Currently,   more   than   5,000   organizations   are
participating  in  programs  around  the  United  States.   The   pollution-
prevention benefits of these innovative programs are beginning  to  multiply
rapidly in response to the groundwork laid and  the  partnerships  made.  In
all, the programs are expected to achieve a large portion of the  reductions
projected in the CCAP. In fact, it is estimated  that  these  programs  will
result in energy cost savings of $10 billion annually in 2000.
    However, the review has  also  made  clear  the  significantly  reduced
impact to be expected from the  programs  as  a  result  of  the  nearly  40
percent reduction of CCAP funding by Congress from the amount  requested  by
the President,  higher-than-expected  electricity  demand,  and  lower-than-
expected energy prices. In addition, before  the  programs'  implementation,
CCAP program managers could not always anticipate the impacts  of  projected
climate change emission reductions. Information  available  from  the  first
tranche of activity was considered in developing the current projections.
    A second product of  the  review  was  the  identification  of  several
measures that have  since  been  added  to  the  CCAP  portfolio.  The  most
significant of these is  the  Environmental  Stewardship  Initiative,  which
greatly expands activities already included in  the  CCAP,  and  focuses  on
reducing the emissions of  extremely  potent  greenhouse  gases  from  three
industrial applications--semiconductor production,  electrical  transmission
and distribution systems, and magnesium casting. The expanded initiative  is
anticipated to reduce emissions by an additional  6.5  MMTCE  by  2000,  and
10.0 MMTCE by 2010. Other programs include improving  energy  efficiency  in
the construction of and  supply  of  energy  to  commercial  and  industrial
buildings,  expanding  residential  markets  for  energy-efficient  lighting
products, and providing information on renewable energy to  reduce  barriers
to the adoption of clean technologies.
    The analysis of individual actions is integrated with revised forecasts
of  economic  growth,  energy  prices,  program  funding,   and   regulatory
developments to provide an updated comprehensive perspective on current  and
projected  greenhouse  gas  emission  levels.  This  analysis  involved   an
updating of the baseline calculation in light of  new  economic  assumptions
regarding energy  prices,  economic  growth,  and  technology  improvements,
among other factors. In 1993, the first U.S. submission projected year  2000
baseline emissions to be 106 MMTCE above their  1990  levels;  with  current
program funding, emissions are now projected to exceed 1990  levels  by  188
MMTCE. Two principal factors are responsible:
The  analysis  used  to  develop  CCAP  significantly   underestimated   the
reductions that would be needed by programs  to  return  emissions  to  1990
levels by the year 2000. This was due to several factors,  including  lower-
than-expected fuel prices, strong economic  growth,  regulatory  limitations
within and outside of CCAP, and improved information on  emissions  of  some
potent greenhouse gases.
In addition, diminished levels of funding by  Congress  have  affected  both
CCAP programs and other federal programs  that  reduce  emissions,  limiting
their effectiveness.
    While neither the measures initiated in 1993 nor the additional actions
developed since then and included in this report will be  adequate  to  meet
the emissions goal enunciated by  the  President,  they  have  significantly
reduced emissions below growth rates that  otherwise  would  have  occurred.
Based on current funding levels, the revised  action  plan  is  expected  to
reduce emissions by 76  MMTCE  in  the  year  2000--or  70  percent  of  the
reductions projected in the CCAP. Annual energy cost savings  to  businesses
and consumers from CCAP actions are anticipated  to  be  $10  billion  (1995
dollars) by the year 2000. Even greater reductions are estimated from  these
measures in the post-2000 period: reductions of 169 MMTCE are projected  for
2010, and 230 MMTCE for 2020. Annual energy savings are  projected  to  grow
to $50 billion (1995 dollars) in the year 2010.
    A separate component of this chapter addresses the U.S.  Initiative  on
Joint Implementation. Projects  undertaken  through  this  initiative  allow
private-sector  partners  to  offset  emissions  from  domestic   activities
through reductions achieved  in  other  countries.  The  Climate  Convention
established a pilot program for joint implementation at  the  first  meeting
of the Conference of the Parties. Guidelines for reporting under  the  pilot
program  were  established  by  the  Subsidiary  Body  for  Scientific   and
Technological Advice at its fifth session  in  February  1997.  This  report
uses those guidelines to report on project activity.

|Tabl|      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|e   |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|1-2 |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|Summ|      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|ary |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|of  |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|Acti|      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|ons |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|to  |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|Redu|      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|ce  |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|Gree|      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|nhou|      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|se  |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|Gas |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|Emis|      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|sion|      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|s   |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|(Mil|      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|lion|      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|Metr|      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|ic  |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|Tons|      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|of  |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|Carb|      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|on  |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|Equi|      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|vale|      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|nt) |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|Acti|      |Act|  |         |1993 Action|Revise|      | |    | |    |    |
|on  |      |ion|  |         |           |d     |      | |    | |    |    |
|Numb|      |Tit|  |         |Plan       |Estima|      | |    | |    |    |
|er  |      |le |  |         |Estimate   |te*   |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |      |   |  |         |2000       |2000  |2005  |2|    | |2020|    |
|    |      |   |  |         |           |      |      |0|    | |    |    |
|    |      |   |  |         |           |      |      |1|    | |    |    |
|    |      |   |  |         |           |      |      |0|    | |    |    |
|    |Reside|   |26|10.3     |           |      |      | |29.4|5|    |78.4|
|    |ntial |   |.9|         |           |      |      | |    |3|    |    |
|    |&     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Commer|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |0|    |    |
|    |cial  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Sector|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Action|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |s     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|1   |Rebuil|   |2.|1.6      |           |      |      | |3.0 |6|    |7.1 |
|    |d     |   |0 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Americ|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |3|    |    |
|    |a     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|1 & |Expand|   |3.|3.4      |           |      |      | |8.5 |1|    |30.2|
|2   |ed    |   |6 |         |           |      |      | |    |6|    |    |
|    |Green |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Lights|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |3|    |    |
|    |and   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Energy|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Star  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Buildi|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ngs   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|3   |State |   |1.|         |           |      |      | |    |T|    |    |
|    |Revolv|   |1 |         |           |      |      | |    |e|    |    |
|    |ing   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |r|    |    |
|    |Fund  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |m|    |    |
|    |for   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |i|    |    |
|    |Public|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |n|    |    |
|    |Buildi|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |a|    |    |
|    |ngs   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |t|    |    |
|    |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |e|    |    |
|    |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |d|    |    |
|4   |Cost-S|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |hared |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Demons|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |tratio|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ns of |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Emergi|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ng    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Techno|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |logies|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|5   |Operat|   |3.|0.0      |           |      |      | |0.5 |1|    |1.0 |
|    |ion   |   |8 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |and   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |0|    |    |
|    |Mainte|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |nance |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Traini|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ng for|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Commer|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |cial  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Buildi|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ng    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Facili|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ty    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Manage|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |rs and|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Operat|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ors   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|6   |Energy|   |5.|4.3      |           |      |      | |12.9|1|    |24.9|
|    |Star |   |0 |         |           |      |      | |    |9|    |    |
|    |Produc|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |ts    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |4|    |    |
|7   |Reside|   |6.|0.2      |           |      |      | |1.8 |3|    |3.8 |
|    |ntial |   |8 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Applia|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |7|    |    |
|    |nce   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Standa|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |rds   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|8   |Energy|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|and |Partne|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|11  |rships|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |for   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Afford|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |able  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Housin|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |g     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|9   |Cool  |   |4.|0.6      |           |      |      | |1.9 |4|    |7.7 |
|    |Commun|   |4 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |ities |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |3|    |    |
|10  |Update|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |State |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Buildi|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ng    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Codes |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|New |Constr|   |No|0.1      |           |      |      | |0.4 |1|    |2.6 |
|    |uction|   |t |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |of    |   |in|         |           |      |      | |    |1|    |    |
|    |Energy|   |cl|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Effic|   |ud|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ient  |   |ed|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Commer|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |cial  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |and   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Indust|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |rial  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Buildi|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ngs   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|New |Superw|   |No|0.0      |           |      |      | |0.1 |0|    |1.3 |
|    |indow |   |t |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Collab|   |in|         |           |      |      | |    |4|    |    |
|    |orativ|   |cl|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |e     |   |ud|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |      |   |ed|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|New |Expand|   |No|0.2      |           |      |      | |0.4 |0|    |0.9 |
|    |Market|   |t |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |s for |   |in|         |           |      |      | |    |7|    |    |
|    |NextG|   |cl|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |enerat|   |ud|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ion   |   |ed|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Lighti|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ng    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Produc|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ts    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|New |Fuel  |   |No|0.0      |           |      |      | |0.0 |0|    |0.4 |
|    |Cells |   |t |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Initia|   |in|         |           |      |      | |    |1|    |    |
|    |tive  |   |cl|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |      |   |ud|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |      |   |ed|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Indust|   |19|4.8      |           |      |      | |8.2 |1|    |16.7|
|    |rial  |   |.0|         |           |      |      | |    |1|    |    |
|    |Sector|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Action|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |5|    |    |
|    |s     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|12  |Motor |   |8.|1.8      |           |      |      | |3.9 |5|    |7.5 |
|    |Challe|   |8 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |nge   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |8|    |    |
|13  |Indust|   |2.|Merged   |           |      |      | |into|M|    |Chal|
|    |rial  |   |9 |         |           |      |      | |    |o|    |leng|
|    |Golden|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |t|    |e   |
|    |Carrot|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |o|    |(#12|
|    |Progra|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |r|    |)   |
|    |ms    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|14  |Accele|   |  |Terminate|           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |rate  |   |  |d        |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |the   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Adopti|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |on of |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Energy|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Effic|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ient  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Proces|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |s     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Techno|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |logies|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|15  |Indust|   |0.|CCAP     |           |      |      | |Comp|T|    |    |
|    |rial  |   |5 |         |           |      |      | |onen|e|    |    |
|    |Assess|   |  |         |           |      |      | |t   |r|    |    |
|    |ment  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |m|    |    |
|    |Center|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |i|    |    |
|    |s     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |n|    |    |
|    |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |a|    |    |
|    |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |t|    |    |
|    |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |e|    |    |
|    |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |d|    |    |
|16  |Waste |   |4.|2.1      |           |      |      | |3.6 |5|    |8.4 |
|    |Minimi|   |2 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |zation|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |0|    |    |
|    |**    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|17  |Improv|   |2.|0.8      |           |      |      | |0.8 |0|    |1.1 |
|    |e     |   |7 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Effici|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |9|    |    |
|    |ency  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |of    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Fertil|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |izer  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Nitrog|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |en    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Use***|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|18  |Reduce|   |  |Terminate|           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |the   |   |  |d        |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Use of|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Pestic|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ides  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Transp|   |8.|5.3      |           |      |      | |11.5|1|    |22.1|
|    |ortati|   |1 |         |           |      |      | |    |5|    |    |
|    |on    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Sector|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |5|    |    |
|    |Action|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |s     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|19  |Cash  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Value |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |of    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Parkin|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |g     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|20  |Innova|   |6.|4.6      |           |      |      | |8.4 |1|    |17.0|
|    |tive  |   |6 |         |           |      |      | |    |0|    |    |
|    |Transp|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |ortati|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |9|    |    |
|    |on    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Strate|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |gies  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|21  |Teleco|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |mmutin|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |g     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Progra|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |m     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|22  |Fuel  |   |1.|0.7      |           |      |      | |3.2 |4|    |5.3 |
|    |Econom|   |5 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |y     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |8|    |    |
|    |Labels|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |for   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Tires |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Energy|   |10|1.3      |           |      |      | |3.7 |7|    |18.9|
|    |Supply|   |.8|         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Action|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |0|    |    |
|    |s     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|23  |Increa|   |2.|Terminate|           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |se    |   |2 |d        |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Natura|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |l Gas |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Share |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |of    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Energy|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Use   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Throug|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |h     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Federa|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |l     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Regula|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |tory  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Reform|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|24  |Promot|   |2.|0.5      |           |      |      | |0.0 |0|    |0.0 |
|    |e     |   |8 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Season|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |0|    |    |
|    |al Gas|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Use   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |for   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Contro|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |l of  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Nitrog|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |en    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Oxides|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|25  |HighE|   |0.|Terminate|           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |fficie|   |6 |d        |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ncy   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Gas   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Techno|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |logies|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|26  |Renewa|   |0.|0.3      |           |      |      | |2.9 |5|    |16.4|
|    |bleEn|   |8 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |ergy  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |6|    |    |
|    |Commer|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |cializ|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ation |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|27  |Expand|   |1.|Terminate|           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Utilit|   |4 |d        |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |y     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Integr|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ated  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Resour|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ce    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Planni|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ng    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|28  |Profit|   |2.|0.0      |           |      |      | |0.0 |0|    |0.0 |
|    |able  |   |0 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Hydroe|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |0|    |    |
|    |lectri|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |c     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Effici|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ency  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Upgrad|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |es    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|29  |Energy|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Effic|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ient  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Distri|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |bution|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Transf|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ormer |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Standa|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |rds   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|30  |Energy|   |0.|0.5      |           |      |      | |0.8 |1|    |2.8 |
|    |Star  |   |8 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Distri|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |4|    |    |
|    |bution|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Transf|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ormers|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|31  |Transm|   |0.|Terminate|           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ission|   |8 |d        |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Pricin|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |g     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Reform|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|New |Green |   |No|0.0      |           |      |      | |Not | |    |    |
|    |Power |   |t |         |           |      |      | |quan| |    |    |
|    |Networ|   |In|         |           |      |      | |tifi| |    |    |
|    |k     |   |cl|         |           |      |      | |ed  | |    |    |
|    |      |   |ud|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |      |   |ed|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Land-U|   |10|2.4      |           |      |      | |3.3 |4|    |5.1 |
|    |se    |   |.0|         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Change|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |2|    |    |
|    |&     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Forest|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ry    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Action|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |s+    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|43  |Reduce|   |4.|Terminate|           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Deplet|   |0 |d        |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ion of|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Nonind|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ustria|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |l     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Privat|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |e     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Forest|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |s     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|44  |Accele|   |0.|0.4      |           |      |      | |1.3 |2|    |3.1 |
|    |rate  |   |5 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Tree  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |2|    |    |
|    |Planti|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ng in |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Nonind|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ustria|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |l     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Privat|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |e     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Forest|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |s     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|16  |Waste |   |4.|2.0      |           |      |      | |2.0 |2|    |2.0 |
|    |Minimi|   |2 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |zation|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |0|    |    |
|    |**    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|9   |Expand|   |0.|Not      |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Cool  |   |5 |quantifie|           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Commun|   |  |d        |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ities |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Methan|   |16|15.5     |           |      |      | |19.0|2|    |24.2|
|    |e     |   |.3|         |           |      |      | |    |3|    |    |
|    |Action|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |s     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |4|    |    |
|32  |Expand|   |3.|3.4      |           |      |      | |3.8 |4|    |4.3 |
|    |Natura|   |0 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |l Gas |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |2|    |    |
|    |STAR  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|33  |Increa|   |4.|6.3      |           |      |      | |7.7 |9|    |5.9 |
|    |se    |   |2 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |String|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |1|    |    |
|    |ency  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |of    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Landfi|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ll    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Rule  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|34  |Landfi|   |1.|1.9      |           |      |      | |2.2 |2|    |4.3 |
|    |ll    |   |1 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Methan|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |9|    |    |
|    |e     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Outrea|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ch    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Progra|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |m     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|35  |Coalbe|   |2.|2.6      |           |      |      | |2.9 |3|    |4.0 |
|    |d     |   |2 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Methan|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |2|    |    |
|    |e     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Outrea|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ch    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Progra|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |m     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|36  |RD&D  |   |1.|Terminate|           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |for   |   |5 |d        |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Coal  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Mine  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Methan|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |e     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|37  |RD&D  |   |1.|Terminate|           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |for   |   |0 |d        |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Landfi|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ll    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Methan|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |e     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|38  |AgSTAR|   |1.|0.3      |           |      |      | |0.8 |1|    |3.2 |
|    |Progra|   |5 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |m     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |8|    |    |
|39  |Rumina|   |1.|1.0      |           |      |      | |1.6 |2|    |2.5 |
|    |nt    |   |8 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Livest|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |2|    |    |
|    |ock   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Effici|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ency  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Progra|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |m     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Action|   |16|25.4     |           |      |      | |40.4|4|    |54.5|
|    |s to  |   |.3|         |           |      |      | |    |5|    |    |
|    |Addres|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |s     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |8|    |    |
|    |Other |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Greenh|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ouse  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Gases |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|17  |Improv|   |4.|5.3      |           |      |      | |5.3 |5|    |5.3 |
|    |e     |   |5 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Effici|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |3|    |    |
|    |ency  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |of    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Fertil|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |izer  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Nitrog|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |en    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Use***|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|40  |Signif|   |5.|6.4      |           |      |      | |19.6|2|    |29.8|
|    |icant |   |0 |         |           |      |      | |    |3|    |    |
|    |New   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Altern|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |1|    |    |
|    |atives|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Progra|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |m     |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|41  |HFC23|   |5.|5.0      |           |      |      | |5.0 |5|    |5.0 |
|    |Partne|   |0 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |rships|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |0|    |    |
|42  |Volunt|   |1.|2.2      |           |      |      | |2.4 |2|    |2.4 |
|    |ary   |   |8 |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Alumin|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |4|    |    |
|    |um    |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Indust|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |rial  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Partne|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |rship |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|New |Enviro|   |No|6.5      |           |      |      | |8.1 |1|    |12.0|
|    |nmenta|   |t |         |           |      |      | |    |0|    |    |
|    |l     |   |in|         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Stewar|   |cl|         |           |      |      | |    |0|    |    |
|    |dship |   |ud|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Initia|   |ed|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |tive  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Founda|   |  |11.3     |           |      |      | |10.7|9|    |12.3|
|    |tion  |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Action|   |  |         |           |      |      | |    |5|    |    |
|    |s++   |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Climat|   |No|1.8      |           |      |      | |2.7 |3|    |4.5 |
|    |e Wise|   |t |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |      |   |es|         |           |      |      | |    |7|    |    |
|    |      |   |ti|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |      |   |ma|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |      |   |te|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |      |   |d |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Climat|   |No|7.6      |           |      |      | |5.0 |1|    |1.5 |
|    |e     |   |t |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Challe|   |es|         |           |      |      | |    |6|    |    |
|    |nge+++|   |ti|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |      |   |ma|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |      |   |te|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |      |   |d |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |State |   |No|1.9      |           |      |      | |3.0 |4|    |6.3 |
|    |and   |   |t |         |           |      |      | |    |.|    |    |
|    |Local |   |es|         |           |      |      | |    |2|    |    |
|    |Outrea|   |ti|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ch    |   |ma|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |Progra|   |te|         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |ms    |   |d |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|    |      |   |  |         |           |      |      | |    | |    |    |
|Total GHG Emission Reductions      |108.6 |76.0  |128.3 |169.3 |22| | | |    |
|                                   |      |      |      |      |9.| | | |    |
|                                   |      |      |      |      |5 | | | |    |
|From CCAP Programs                 |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|Notes: Several of the Climate      |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|Change Action Plan (CCAP) programs |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|are part of larger federal efforts.|      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|These programs include Actions 2,  |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|4, 6, 7, 15, 16, 27, 32, and 33.   |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|Only the CCAP portions of these    |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|programs are included in this      |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|table. Also, numbers may not add   |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|precisely due to interactive       |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|effects and rounding.              |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|* There is uncertainty in any      |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|attempt to project future emission |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|levels and program impacts, and    |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|this uncertainty becomes greater   |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|with longer forecast periods. The  |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|results of this evaluation of CCAP |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|represent a best estimate. They are|      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|also based on the assumption that  |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|programs will continue to be funded|      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|at current funding levels.         |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|** Includes Waste Wise, NICE3, and |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|USDA's Expansion of Recycling      |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|Technology. Energy savings and     |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|sequestration are scored           |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|separately.                        |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|*** Energy savings and N2O savings |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|are scored separately.             |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|+ Additional forestry initiatives  |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|by electric utilities are included |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|in Climate Challenge, a Foundation |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|Program.                           |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|++ Foundation action partners      |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|provide additional reductions in   |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|almost all sectors and gases. These|      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|values only represent incremental  |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|savings not accounted for in other |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|actions or baseline activities.    |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|+++ For the Climate Challenge      |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|program, there is considerable     |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|uncertainty at this time in        |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|quantifying impacts beyond the year|      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|2000, largely because partners'    |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|Climate Challenge plans do not     |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|currently extend beyond 2000.Given |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|that participation levels are      |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|growing and that most utilities    |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|appear to be meeting or expanding  |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|upon their commitments to reducing |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|greenhouse gas emissions, it is    |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|reasonable to expect that the      |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|Climate Challenge program will     |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|deliver more significant           |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |
|reductions.                        |      |      |      |      |  | | | |    |


                     Research and Systematic Observation


    The U.S. government has dedicated significant resources to research  on
global climate change. U.S. research efforts  (some  of  which  include  the
private sector) are  divided  into  several  general  categories,  including
prediction of climate change, impacts and  adaptation,  mitigation  and  new
technologies, and socioeconomic analysis and assessment. In  addition,  U.S.
scientists actively coordinate with research and  capacity-building  efforts
in other countries.
    The principal vehicle for undertaking climate change  research  at  the
federal level is the United  States  Global  Change  Research  Program.  The
multiagency program was funded in fiscal year  1997  at  approximately  $1.8
billion. A significant portion  of  the  Research  Program's  activities  is
targeted at improving capabilities to predict climate change, including  the
human-induced contribution to  climate  change,  and  its  implications  for
society and  the  environment.  The  United  States  also  is  committed  to
continuing programs in research and observation, with the aim of  developing
the information base required to improve predictions of climate  change  and
its repercussions,  as  well  as  the  ability  to  reduce  emissions  while
sustaining food production, ecosystems, and economic development.
    Extensive efforts also are being made to understand the consequences of
climate change, regional impacts, and the potential for adaptation.  Another
area being explored by researchers is the development of  technologies  that
would enable the United States to  supply  energy,  food,  water,  ecosystem
services, and a healthy environment to U.S. citizens,  while  simultaneously
reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These  efforts  have  been  divided  into
short- and longer-term projects involving the private  sector,  as  well  as
government-sponsored research.
    Perhaps most notable in the international  component  of  the  research
effort is U.S. participation in IPCC work. U.S. scientists  participated  in
the preparation and review of nearly all of the more than  100  chapters  of
the over 2,000-page report. Researchers also participated in the  collection
and analysis of the underlying data through programs as varied as the  World
Climate Research Program,  the  Human  Dimensions  of  Global  Environmental
Change Program,  the  International  Geosphere-Biosphere  Programme  and  an
impressive array of bilateral scientific and technical work.


                                 The Future


    Overall, the conclusions to be drawn from this report can be summarized
in three parts:
Climate change is a clearly defined problem and is well  recognized  at  the
highest levels in the U.S. government. Senior officials (from the  President
to heads of cabinet agencies and departments) have taken a strong  stand  in
favor of seeking to reduce emissions.
The combined effort to address climate change  (described  in  this  report,
and including the Research Program,  the  total  costs  of  U.S.  mitigation
actions, and the international  effort)  are  in  excess  of  $2  billion--a
significant step by any standard.
Notwithstanding this effort, emissions continue  to  grow.  More  aggressive
actions must be taken to combat the threat of climate change.
    The United States is developing  a  long-term,  post-2000  strategy  to
address  the  climate  change  problem.  This  effort,  which  has  both   a
multilateral, international focus and a domestic focus, is  expected  to  be
made public in the next few  months.  It  will  be  based  on  an  extensive
analytic effort to assess the effects  of  an  array  of  additional  policy
choices, including setting legally binding, internationally agreed  caps  on
emissions. It will consider the advantages of market-based  instruments  for
both  domestic  and  international  emissions  trading,  as  well  as  joint
implementation for  credit  with  developing  countries.  It  will  consider
approaches to be taken for gases for which monitoring  and  measurement  are
relatively simple  (e.g.,  for  carbon  dioxide  emissions  from  stationary
energy sources), as well  as  those  gases  for  which  emissions  are  more
difficult to measure (such as nitrous oxides from agriculture).
    Currently underway, the effort  is  intensive  and  time-consuming.  It
involves more than twenty agencies within the federal  government,  as  well
as several offices in the Executive Office of the President.  Congress  will
be consulted in the development of policies and will  most  likely  need  to
enact  legislation  to  implement  any   agreed   program.   A   significant
stakeholder outreach program  will  be  undertaken  over  the  next  several
months to engage the best thinking on alternative approaches, and  following
adoption of a program to  ensure  maximum  compliance  with  the  course  of
action chosen.

    ( www.state.gov
    (    contact://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/climate/index.php
    ( Global Warming International Center