-


2012 . 2
314.48
-
. . , . .
- , 614045, , . , 82, root@fcrisk.ru; (342)2372534 , 614990, , . , 15; ivanovii@mail.ru; (342)2396233
- . . , - . .
: - ; ; ; ; ; .

[ ..., 2010]. - - , . , - , - - , .
- [, 1991]. 1980- . , , , , -
, [, 2001].
. - .


:
= -1000, (1)
N
- , - , N - .
: ; ; .
. , . -
. ., . ., 2012
, . . 3 2008 . - .
, , -10. :
. = 100,

(2)
, - - , , - - , - .
, . , . 1 2010 .
: 0 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5-9 , 10-14 , ... , 65-70 , 70 . , . 2 2010 . .
. . 3 2006-2010 . .
30,0
. 2. 2010 .
. . 3 2006-2010 . .

. 3. 2006-2010 .
:
- - , , :

=^~ 100
' ^
, - , - ^ , 8, _ 1 - ;
- - , ;
- ;= 8 8,-1100.
(4)

(). - - , . , -, , . [, 2002].
, , 10 = 10 000 () .
k (qk) :
= 1 - ~, (5)
- , .
= 1 , .
k ()
k =1 - qk (6)
(1) , 8 .
1+ = 1 . (7)
( d)
dk = 1 - . (8)
-, (Lk ).
(1 + 1 + ) -
Lk =-
2
(9)
-, (),
- . ()
= I '
I -
(10)
(11)
2008 . . 1.
1
(2008 .)
h 1 dx Lx
1 1 177 19507 0.009 0.991 100000.0 903.3 99548.4 6653734.9 66.54
1 1 12 17231 0.001 0.999 99096.7 69.0 99062.2 6554186.6 66.14
1 2 11 16879 0.001 0.999 99027.7 64.5 98995.5 6455124.3 65.19
1 3 12 17842 0.001 0.999 98963.2 66.5 98930.0 6356128.8 64.23
1 4 10 17591 0.001 0.999 98896.7 56.2 98868.6 6257198.9 63.27
5 5 9 22 78674 0.000 0.999 98840.5 138.1 493857.2 6158330.3 62.31
5 10 14 24 76853 0.000 0.998 98702.4 154.0 493127.0 5664473.1 57.39
5 15 19 123 119321 0.001 0.995 98548.4 506.6 491475.4 5171346.1 52.48
5 20 24 287 141554 0.002 0.990 98041.8 988.9 487736.7 4679870.7 47.73
5 25 29 382 121033 0.003 0.984 97052.9 1519.6 481465.6 4192134.0 43.19
5 30 34 496 114732 0.004 0.979 95533.3 2042.9 472559.6 3710668.4 38.84
5 35 39 560 99589 0.006 0.972 93490.5 2591.9 460972.6 3238108.9 34.64
5 40 44 750 105949 0.007 0.965 90898.6 3161.0 446590.2 2777136.2 30.55
5 45 49 1400 135235 0.010 0.950 87737.5 4425.9 427622.9 2330546.0 26.56
5 50 54 1692 123462 0.014 0.934 83311.6 5517.6 402764.2 1902923.1 22.84
5 55 59 1969 99077 0.020 0.905 77794.0 7358.5 370573.9 1500159.0 19.28
5 60 64 1309 46716 0.028 0.869 70435.5 9208.1 329157.5 1129585.0 16.04
5 65 69 2020 60326 0.033 0.846 61227.5 9438.8 282540.4 800427.6 13.07
20 70 10169 121165 0.084 0.000 51788.7 51788.7 517887.1 517887.1 10.00
21436 1532736 0.014

, (, ), .

, , , . , , .
, -, .
, [-, 2002]. [, 2010].
, , - . -
= N1
N7 - 8
I
.- (!3)

-
/
( ) ( )
^
(1 ):
_ < / \
= 1 . (14)
(14) (1) (13),
N7
_
= N7 (15)

, -. (Nkk 'Nk ). , , , , .
(
ZN
) , -
:
N
I
/
.
*
(12)
N
* 8
(16)
- ; N - ; - ; ; - ; - .
, , , , . ( ), -
I :
-

:
__ (^ \
. ( )
- . . .. , . 2
2


1 1600 45-49 7000
1-4 6400 50-54 7000
5-9 7000 55-59 6000
10-14 7000 60-64 5000
15-19 7000 65-69 4000
20-24 7000 70-74 3000
25-29 7000 75-79 2000
30-34 7000 80-84 1000
35-39 7000 85 1000
40-44 7000 100000

- -
. -
2008 . . 3. -
.
3

(2008 .)
( ) ( ) ( )

15.32 36 15.32 15.32 14.62
. 19.22 12 18.66 12 18.59 12 17.82 13
. 14.72 43 15.01 44 14.96 44 14.30 45
. 26.20 2 20.54 5 19.11 11 19.48 5
. 21.83 5 20.17 7 20.20 5 19.13 7
. 27.14 1 23.14 3 22.16 3 22.00 3
. 16.49 29 15.91 36 15.92 35 15.23 35
. 16.99 22 18.41 14 18.24 13 17.90 12
. 14.95 39 14.64 46 14.64 46 14.09 46
. 18.85 16 17.48 21 17.39 19 16.60 21
. 12.88 51 12.73 52 12.71 52 12.18 52
. 14.40 45 15.63 38 15.59 38 14.72 38
. 12.84 53 14.11 47 13.91 47 13.49 47
. 18.89 15 17.54 20 17.31 20 16.85 19
- 19.36 11 16.98 26 16.78 26 16.10 28
- 14.86 41 14.77 45 14.84 45 14.31 44
- 17.56 20 17.65 18 17.44 18 17.26 17
- 16.77 25 19.25 10 19.37 9 18.44 9
- 16.95 23 20.47 6 20.70 4 19.24 6
- 19.37 10 19.46 9 19.39 8 18.37 10
- 15.92 33 16.37 33 16.36 33 15.76 32
- 17.07 21 16.99 25 16.86 25 16.20 25
- 19.05 13 17.00 24 16.91 24 16.10 27
- 15.43 35 16.61 31 16.65 30 15.51 33
- 19.62 8 16.81 28 16.67 29 16.06 29
- 16.46 30 16.50 32 15.78 37 15.88 30
- 16.51 28 19.21 11 19.18 10 18.33 11
- 16.66 27 16.82 27 16.77 27 16.35 24
- 24.78 3 24.96 2 23.76 2 24.24 2
- 14.72 44 15.31 40 15.13 42 14.72 39
- 14.92 40 15.21 42 15.11 43 14.66 41
- 17.72 19 17.84 17 17.82 15 17.17 18
- 16.10 32 16.71 30 16.75 28 15.85 31
- 15.20 37 15.06 43 15.19 40 14.62 43
- 16.68 26 17.60 19 17.55 16 16.57 22
- 19.03 14 18.13 15 17.91 14 17.44 16
- 16.35 31 15.81 37 15.85 36 14.87 36
- 15.59 34 17.36 22 17.27 21 16.60 20
- 17.80 18 19.61 8 19.62 7 18.68 8
- 13.83 46 16.35 34 16.42 32 14.73 37
- 18.64 17 16.79 29 16.62 31 16.18 26
- 16.86 24 15.36 39 15.33 39 14.68 40
- 20.89 6 18.43 13 16.99 23 17.70 14
- 14.74 42 16.32 35 16.28 34 15.46 34
- 14.97 38 17.29 23 17.20 22 16.41 23
- 13.29 49 15.30 41 15.18 41 14.63 42
- 22.72 4 26.28 1 26.48 1 24.72 1
- 19.67 7 17.95 16 17.45 17 17.46 15
-
. , -
, - . , , - 28-29, .. , .
, . , - .
, .

- - - . , ,
.
.
:
. /1
(18)
, :
=
^
(19)
, , , . , .
2008 . . 4. .
4
(2008 .)
. .
. /1000 1 .
5567 6,62 16,03 89216
218 0,26 6 18,46 4 4024 6
74 0,09 8 16,51 6 1222 8
1 0,00 14 3,00 15 3 15
1357 1,61 2 12,53 11 17001 2
314 0,37 5 14,35 9 4507 5
- 650 0,77 3 14,23 10 9250 3
10 0,01 11 17,00 5 170 12
28 0,03 9 11,04 12 309 10
6 0,01 12 26,33 2 158 13
, 6 0,01 12 29,67 1 178 11
112 0,13 7 15,54 8 1741 7
2198 2,61 1 20,07 3 44114 1
549 0,65 4 10,82 13 5942 4
1 0,00 14 8,00 14 8 14
20 0,02 10 16,25 7 325 9


- [, 2010]. - ,
. , .

, . . .
, () () . () , , .
:
* =
(20)
S,
(21)
_ _ '
. 5.
(. 4) . , : , , . , , , , .
, :
_ ,
I
, ,
( - _-^---------
(22)


. 4.
= 0,1481 0"
(23)
, . .
25 2007 . .
. 4, 5 , , .
(. 4) , .
()
. 5.
, 10 .
, , .

- , , -
> ,

0, * < ,


. , , , . . . , , . - .

.. .: NOTABENE, 1999;
2001. 272 .
.., .. . .: , 1991.
,
2009 . // . , 2010. 218 .
.. : . . . . /: , 2002. 448 .
.. ( ) // IV . . . --. , 2010. . 2. . 344-347.
.. ( ) // - : .-. . . . : . , 2010. . 583.
28.03.2012
Demographic and medical analysis methods at the population level M. J. Cinker, mathematician
FBSI Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Prophylactic Health Risk Management Technologies of Federal State Service for Surveillance in the Sphere of Consumers Protection and Human Well-Being, 82 Monastyrskaja str., Perm, Russia, 614045, root@fcrisk.ru; (342)2372534 D. A. Kirianov, candidate of technical sciences, associate professor Perm State University. 15, Bukirev str., Perm, Russia,614990
This article focused on analytical review of demographic and medical analysis. The v territorial bodies of government statistics were major source of information. The complex of methods, allows to investigate the medical and demographic situation at the population level, was offered. Methods was approved for the Perm Krai and the Udmurt Republic.
Key words: medical and demographic analysis; mortality; life expectancy; standardised mortality rate; loss of labor potential; potential to reduce mortality.
,
- »
, ,
»