.., .., .., .., .., .., .., ..
. .. - » ,
. , (). , , . 2014 . , . , 10-12% .
: , , , , , , , , .
, , [1, 2] , () [1].
, 47 [1] , , , . .
» ([1], . 5.4). , » ([1], . 5.15).
1-20 / [1]. , ( ) [2]. ( ) -
..* - . .; .. - . ., ...; .. - . . ., ...; .. - . ., ...; .. - . .; .. - . . .; .. - . ., ...; .. - , . . , .-. . . .. - » . : 249036, ., , . , 4. .: (484) 399-32-45; e-mail: nrer@obninsk.com.
. , , , , . .
: (EAR) [1], (ARF, , AR, , PC) [3], (LAR) [1], (LARF) [4], (YLL) [4], - (YLLRIC) [4].
(LAR, LARF, YLL, YLLRIC) - 100 [4], .
(ARF) , (), .. .
[4], , . - . - » . , .

: , , , , , , (-); : , -, , , -, , , , . .1.
1
2013 .
., . ., .
. 97376 92380
. 114753 106768
212129 199148

: 1) 2007 . ( 103 ) [2] - »; 2) ( ) [4] - ».
-- .
.. . . :
= 0 + Ar . (1)
l, a s: .. 0 = 0 (l, a, s). l, s, d, g a:
(, a, l, s, d ) = 0(a, l, s ) + (9 > a, l, s,d ) .
R : . :
= + ear , (2)
= - (Excess Absolute Risk), .
:
= (1 + ERR ), (2)
^-ERR, ERR - (Excess Relative Risk) : EAR
ERR = -. (3)

, EAR, ERR, - TLS. , TLS - EAR ERR.
LSS ([2] A108). . EAR, ERR:
EAR lnc = p ERR 0 + (1 - p ) EAR -, (3):
EAR
= p EAR mult + (1 - p ) EAR
(4)
p - , ([2] A140), :
add (l )
EAR
(g, a, l, s, D ) = D
fi add (l , S )
10
exp [aadd (l ) (g - 30 )], (5)
2007:
mult (l)
EAR
mult
. '0 (l, S, a )
(g , a, I, S , D -- D fi mult
10
(l, s )
exp [ (l) (g - 30 )] (6)
(5) (6): l - ; s - ; g - ; a - ; D - ; pmult , mu/f , - ; padd , add , aadd - .
[2] aadd . , ymult add . err mu,t ear add , ([2] A4.6, A4.7). (5)
(6), ,
.
:
mut ( l )= ^' f 1 + ^ d )= ^' i 1 +
10 ^ 100 ) 10 ^ 100 )
fimUlt , a mun , r mut , fi add , add , r add . 2.
, TLS, 10- . , 10 , , , .
2
2007 [2]
fimult Ymult mult fiadd Yadd add
. 0,87 0 -2,26 10,9 -39 3,5
. . 0,53 1,05 -56 0,00 0,69 2,33 -24 0,01
l EARS (4) :
EARS (g, a, l, s, D )= p (l ) EAR mu,t (g, a, l, s, D ) + (l - p (l)) EAR add (g, a, l, s, D ) .
add
4
, 70 )
I 70 )
p - , 0 1 - ([2] A140).
[2] [4] , , 0 , .. 1 . .
, [2], . : EARS (a, , D )= D exp [ In (a - )]
= 1,94038 10 - 5 -1 -1 (7)
= 1,086
a - ; g - , D - g; EAR 1/100 . .-.
, , , .
EAR a , :
I a - TLS
EAR (g , a, l, s , D )= - Y EARS (e, a, l, s, De ); a > e , (8)
DDREF
e = g
g - ; a - ; De - , e; D - ; l - ; s - ; DDREF - , , DDREF=2 DDREF=1 .
(EAR) EAR 1994 . [5] (. 48, - 14):
a - 2
EAR( s, a, g ,D) = {a s (t) D t (1 + 0,79 D) exp( (t) (a - t - 25))} , (9)
t=g
a - ; g - ; t- Dt - t; EAR 1/100 . .- t=a-g, ; 2 () .
-. . . 3 a
. , . - (9) . , 6-14 , - 14-33 . , g (. 3).
3
EAR
t,
, -1 , -1 , -1 , -1
0-19 3,3 -0,17 5,9 6,6 -0,07 14,3
20-39 4,8 -0,13 7,9 9,7 -0,03 33,3
> 39 13,1 -0,07 14,3 26,4 0,03 33,3
:
OIR(a,g,D)=2 (a) +EAR(a,g,D), (10)
a - ( ); g - ; a>g; D - , ; 2(a) - a.
( ), ARF, :
EAR (a, g, D )
ARF (a, g , D ) = ----- , (11)
OIR (a, g, D )
(9).
,
, :
1) ( , , ) OIR(a,g,D) . a , . , (2(a)) , D g.
2) OIR(a,g,D) , ( ).
3) :
EAR (a, g, D )
ARF (a, g, D) = --, (12)
OIR (a, g, D )
a - ; g - ; D - g; EAR(a,g,D) - .
4) ARF(a,g,D) g D:
1 N
ARF (a) = ARF (a, g,, D;) , (13)
N i=1
i - , ; N - a.
5) .
6) .
) () , {ARF(a)} (12) 50% ARF(a) a:
ae {}: {ARF(a)} > 0,5 Maxa(ARF(a)). (14)
) () , {ARF(a)} (12) 80% ARFs(a) a:
ae {}: {ARF(a)} > 0,8 Maxa(ARF(a)). (15)
ARF(a) 50% 80% , 20 5 . ARF(a) , .
7) OIR(a,g,D) , EAR(a,g,D) 1) - 6, ) .

. 1 ARF(a) (13) , 2014 ., 2013 . [7].
2014 . >34,6%:
{}: {()} > 0,5Maxa(ARF(a))=0,569,2%=34,6%, ..:
28 (ARF=54,9%) 32 (ARF=34,6%) - 5961 ., 28 (ARF=54,9%) 35 (ARF=36,8%) - 10817 .; 2014 . >55,4%:
{}: > 0,8Maxa(ARF(a))=0,854,9%=55,39%=55,4%,
..:
28 (ARF=54,9%) - 985 .,
28 (ARF=54,9%) 31 (ARF=57,4%) - 5319 .
2014 .,
. 1. ARF(a) , 2014 .; 1(())=69,2%, 28 .
. 4, 2013 .
() 2014 ., (), () (. 5). [6], , .
4
2013 . (15-44 )
,
., . ., .
. . . .
15 1452 1490 1495 1217
16 1452 1490 1495 1217
17 1452 1490 1495 1217
18 1452 1490 1495 1217
19 1452 1490 1495 1217
20 1371 1399 1421 1266
21 1371 1399 1421 1266
22 1371 1399 1421 1266
23 1371 1399 1421 1266
24 1371 1399 1421 1266
25 1458 1488 985 1265
26 1458 1488 985 1265
27 1458 1488 985 1265
28 1458 1488 985 1265
29 1458 1488 985 1265
30 1491 1477 1331 1395
31 1491 1477 1331 1395
32 1491 1477 1331 1395
33 1491 1477 1331 1395
34 1491 1477 1331 1395
35 1498 1411 1379 1314
36 1498 1411 1379 1314
37 1498 1411 1379 1314
38 1498 1411 1379 1314
39 1498 1411 1379 1314
40 1631 1609 1445 1316
41 1631 1609 1445 1316
42 1631 1609 1445 1316
43 1631 1609 1445 1316
44 1631 1609 1445 1316
5
() 2014 .,

., . ., .
. . . .
, , . 28-29 2917 28-31 5931 28-32 5961 28-35 10817 25626
, , . 16-19 5959 16-24 11200 17159
, , . 26-44 28933 27-39 18903 26-44 24709 27-44 23918 96463

, , ( , ARF) .
:
() , ARF 50% ARF .
() , ARF 80% ARF .
:
() ( , ) ( , ) : - 16 24 , - 28 35 .
2014 . 42785 , .. 10,4% 411277 .
.
2014 . 96463 , .. 23,5% , (ARF) 5% ( ARF - 4,8%), .
, 48627 , (11,8% ). , 10-12% , .
2016 . 2014 . , , ».

1. : . . . GSR Part 3 (Interim). : , 2011. 311 .
2. 103 (): . . / . .. .. . .: . », 2009. 312 .
3. Methods for estimating the probability of cancer from occupational radiation exposure, IAEA-TECDOC-870. Vienna: IAEA, 1996. 55 p.
4. United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) 2006 report. Effects of ionizing radiation. Volume I: Report to the General Assembly, Scientific annexes A and B. New York: United Nations, 2008. 383 p.
5. United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) 1994 Report to the General Assembly, with Scientific Annexes. Sources and effects of ionizing radiation. New York: United Nations, 1994. 272 p.
6. United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) 2013 report. Sources, effects and risks of ionizing radiation. Volume I: Report to the General Assembly, Scientific annex A, Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident after the 2011 great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami. New York: United Nations, 2014. 311 p.
7. 2004 . (-2004) , 714 30.05.2003 . 8.08.2002 . 1076» ( ).
Methods and criteria of formation of groups of radiation risk among the population of the contaminated regions of the Russian Federation and Republic of Belarus
Chekin S.Yu., Maksioutov M.A., Meniailo A.N., Vlasov O.K., Shchukina N.V., Korelo A.M., Tumanov K.A., Ivanov V.K.
A. Tsyb MRRC, Obninsk
The paper considers a problem of optimization of control measures on population health in existing exposure situations. The method of formation of groups of radiation risk among the exposed population based on calculation of an annual attributable radiation fraction (ARF) for cancer incidence is presented. It is shown that for the given history of the existing exposure and for each localization of cancer there is a gender and age group of the population having the maximum radiation risk. Definition of groups of radiation risk in 2014 is shown on the example of the population of the contaminated arias of the Bryansk region of the Russian Federation and the Gomel region of the Republic of Belarus. Risks of a thyroid cancer, a breast cancer and leukemia are chosen as the main indicator radiation risks of the population. Allocation of groups of risk by the developed method on above-mentioned cancers allows to optimize control measures on population health and action for early diagnostics, annually choosing for these actions about 10-12% of persons from the population of the contaminated areas.
Key words: existing exposure, Chernobyl NPP, contaminated territory, population, thyroid cancer, breast cancer, leukemia, attributable radiation fraction, groups of risk.
Chekin S.Yu.* - Head of Lab.; Maksioutov M.A. - Head of Lab., C. Sc., Tech.; Meniailo A.N. - Senior Researcher, C. Sc., Biol.; Vlasov O.K. -Head of Lab., D.Sc., Tech.; Shchukina N.V. - Researcher; Korelo A.M. - Senior Researcher; Tumanov KA. - Head of Lab., C. Sc., Biol.; Ivanov V.K. - Deputy Director, Chairman of RSCRP, Corresponding Member of RAS. A. Tsyb MRRC. Contacts: 4 Korolyov str., Obninsk, Kaluga region, Russia, 249036. Tel.: (484) 399-32-45; e-mail: nrer@obninsk.com.
References
1. Radiation Protection and Safety of Radiation Sources. International Basic Safety Standards, GSR Part 3 (Interim), General Safety Requirements, Vienna, IAEA, 2011. 311 p. (In Russian).
2. ICRP Publication 103. Eds.: Kiselev M.F., Shandala N.K. Moscow, PKF Alana», 2009. 311 p. (In Russian).
3. Methods for estimating the probability of cancer from occupational radiation exposure, IAEA-TECDOC-870. Vienna, IAEA, 1996. 55 p.
4. United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) 2006 report. Effects of ionizing radiation. Volume I: Report to the General Assembly, Scientific annexes A and B. New York, United Nations, 2008. 383 p.
5. United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) 1994 Report to the General Assembly, with Scientific Annexes. Sources and effects of ionizing radiation. New York, United Nations, 1994. 272 p.
6. United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) 2013 report. Sources, effects and risks of ionizing radiation. Volume I: Report to the General Assembly, Scientific annex A, Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident after the 2011 great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami. New York, United Nations, 2014. 311 p.
7. Catalogue of Average Annual Effective Exposure Doses of Population from the Settlements of the Republic of Belarus, 2004 year. Gomel, 2005. (In Russian).