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SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS METHODS FOR THE POPULATION AND URBANIZED TERRITORIES A.A. Aleksandrov1, V.I. Larionov12, S.P. Sushchev13, N.I. Frolova2, R.A. Gumerov3
1Bauman Moscow State Technical University, Moscow, Russian Federation e-mail: rector@bmstu.ru; lar@esrc.ru; esrc@esrc.ru
2Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation e-mail: frolova@esrc.ru
3Extreme Situations Research Center, Moscow, Russian Federation e-mail: gumerov@esrc.ru
The factors determining seismic risk are considered. Description of uniform analysis methods of the seismic risk for the inhabitants and the built-up territories during destructive earthquakes is provided. Methodical approaches to obtaining the damage
rules and people injuries, indicators of vulnerability definition and risk are offered. Characteristic parameters of the normal law function of building vulnerability, including the information about consequences of destructive earthquakes over the last hundred years, are received on the basis of statistical selection. Dependencies between the characteristics of urbanized territory and its vulnerability range are established. The technique of quantitative danger assessment, vulnerability and risk of earthquake emergency is developed. Recommendations are provided to create thematic seismic risk maps with application of GIS-technologies. Stage-by-stage creation of the GIS-project is presented. The seismic risk map fragment constructed in the way of qualitative background is given.
Keywords: risk analysis, seismic, seismic risk, vulnerability, damage rule, destruction law, GIS-technology, seismic risk map.
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12.10.2014
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Aleksandrov A.A. Dr. Sci. (Eng.), professor, Rector of the Bauman Moscow State Technical University, head of "Ecology and Industrial Safety" department of the Bauman Moscow State Technical University. Author of more than 100 publications in the field of resources and nature conservation during storage and transportation of liquid hydrocarbon fuel using cryogenic technology, theory of risks, fracture mechanics, industrial safety and exploitation of dangerous production objects.
Bauman Moscow State Technical University, 2-ya Baumanskaya ul. 5, Moscow, 105005 Russian Federation.
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Larionov V.I. Dr. Sci. (Eng.), professor, deputy director of the Scientific and Educational Center Extreme Situations Research of the Bauman Moscow State Technical University, head of the seismic risk laboratory in the seismological center of Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Author of more than 200 publications in the field of theory of risks and industrial safety of potentially dangerous objects.
Bauman Moscow State Technical University, 2-ya Baumanskaya ul. 5, Moscow, 105005 Russian Federation.
Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience, Russian Academy of Sciences, Ulanskiy per. 13, build. 2, Moscow, 101000 Russian Federation.
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Sushchev S.P. Dr. Sci. (Eng.), professor of "Ecology and Industrial Safety" department of the Bauman Moscow State Technical University, director of Extreme Situations Research Center (ESRC). Author of more than 100 publications in the field of theory of risks, fracture mechanics, industrial safety and exploitation of dangerous production objects.
Bauman Moscow State Technical University, 2-ya Baumanskaya ul. 5, Moscow, 105005 Russian Federation.
Extreme Situations Research Center, Podkolokol'nyy per. 16/2, Moscow, 109028 Russian Federation.
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, , 101000, , ., . 13, . 2. Frolova N.I. Cand. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), leading researcher of the seismological center of Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geosciences, Russian Academy of Sciences. Author of about 70 publications in the field of seismic and natural risk assessment and management. Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience, Russian Academy of Sciences, Ulanskiy per. 13, build. 2, Moscow, 101000 Russian Federation.
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Gumerov R.A. programmer of Extreme Situations Research Center (ESRC). Specializes
in the field of industrial safety of objects of oil and gas industry.
Extreme Situations Research Center, Podkolokol'nyy per. 16/2, Moscow, 109028 Russian
Federation.